Are We Regulating Ourselves Back Into Recession?

"Let us put an end to self-inflicted wounds," President Gerald Ford told Congress in 1975. "And let us remember that our national unity is a most priceless asset." While Ford was talking about the scars from the Vietnam War, his words seem relevant today. Our nation grapples with not one divisive issue, but a basket of them, each pulling and undermining our already battered confidence, while testing our resolve and straining the limits of logic.
What are we doing to ourselves, America?
In just two short weeks, instead of closing the books after a bruising election, we've not only kept the rancor alive but have doubled down on it. In this morning's papers alone, I easily counted a dozen different areas of discourse before growing tired of it all. As my colleague Mike Santoli and I discuss in the attached video, with so much going on — and with so much wrong — is it any wonder stocks are moving in reverse at a fast clip since the second quarter correction.
"It feels like a particularly heavy round of one of these anti-business — or at least calling business to task — moments," Santoli says in the face of my long and growing list of negatives, which include higher taxes, the fiscal cliff, the Benghazi aftermath, turnover at the CIA, federal probes of FedEx and UPS over mail-order medicine, BP's record fine, further investigation into banks for money laundering, as well as another round of mandatory stress testing.
Before you go off and call me some kind of zero-regulation advocate or pessimist, all I am saying is that it strikes me as slightly counterproductive to be building up and and tearing down the banks at the same time. And Santoli seems to agree, saying that it is alarming to see how much banks have to spend on compliance, legal and regulatory issues, calling it a "massive weight."
As much as we had recently been gaining some degree of comfort over the economy, housing and jobs, it suddenly seems as if we're doing everything wrong.
''Is it ever going to be a good time to cinch up tax rates?" Santoli questions. Obviously the answer is no, and yet the markets cling to the belief that our elected officials will break ranks and reach some sort of last-minute grand bargain solution.
Maybe I am just being cynical, but I am of the mind that no major changes will emerge without first going through a period of calamity. Santoli is a smidge more optimistic, however, clinging to a ''residual hope'' that the President has a ''Nixon-to-China moment" and that his second term is not about fighting individual, ideological fight. "That is the distant hope you have to hold," he says.
How about you? Have you given up hope in the face of so much negativity?

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Earnings from McDonald's, Microsoft sink stocks

NEW YORK (AP) -- Poor earnings reports from three companies in the Dow Jones industrial average — Microsoft, General Electric and McDonalds — sent indexes down sharply Friday, marking a sour end to an otherwise strong week in the stock market.
McDonald's led a broad drop in the Dow, falling 3 percent. The Dow was down 151 points at 13,397 shortly after noon.
"I'm concerned about corporate earnings, but I'm not alarmed yet," said Doug Cote, chief market strategist at ING Investment Management in New York.
Cote cautions that it's still early in reporting season, but what's worrying is that companies have reported an overall drop in earnings so far. "And once you get one quarter of negative earnings, it's a precursor," he said. "It's the cockroach theory: if you find one, there's probably many more."
The Standard & Poor's 500 sank 17 points to 1,440 and the Nasdaq composite dropped 52 points to 3,020. All 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 fell, led by materials and technology stocks.
McDonald's profit sank as a strong dollar hurt international results, which account for two-thirds of its business. The fast-food giant's stock lost $3.51 to $89.35.
Microsoft's income fell 22 percent as PC sales took a dive and as troubles in Europe took their toll. Its stock lost 67 cents to $28.82.
General Electric, another economic bellwether, fell 3 percent. The company reported stronger profits early Friday but its revenue missed Wall Street's expectations. Orders for new equipment and services sank, mainly because wind turbine orders have fallen because a key U.S. federal subsidy for wind power expires at the end of the year.
GE's stock lost 60 cents to $22.21.
Analysts currently expect companies in the S&P 500 to post their worst earnings results since the third quarter of 2009, according to S&P Capital IQ. Banks and consumer discretionary companies are projected to report the best growth. Analysts expect companies dealing in metals and other materials to report the worst results, followed by energy companies.
But it's technology companies like IBM, Intel and Google whose weak results have grabbed the most attention so far.
Weak earnings from Google and a rise in claims for unemployment benefits helped pull the stock market lower Thursday. That snapped a four-day run of gains for the Dow. Google fell again Friday, giving up $14.14 to $680.86.
The Dow is still up 0.6 percent for the week. The S&P 500 up is up 0.8 percent.
In other Friday trading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipped to 1.77 percent from 1.83 percent late Thursday.
Among other stocks making big moves, Chipotle Mexican Grill plunged 14 percent after the burrito chain forecast that revenue growth would slow sharply next year. The stock had been a favorite among investors thanks to super-fast growth in recent years. The stock fell $41.32 to $244.61.

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Judge asks Hostess to mediate with union

WHITE PLAINS, N.Y. (AP) -- Twinkies won't die that easily after all.
Hostess Brands Inc. and its second largest union will go into mediation to try and resolve their differences, meaning the company won't go out of business just yet. The news came Monday after Hostess moved to liquidate and sell off its assets in bankruptcy court citing a crippling strike last week.
The bankruptcy judge hearing the case said Monday that the parties haven't gone through the critical step of mediation and asked the lawyer for the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union, which has been on strike since Nov. 9, to ask his client, who wasn't present, if the union would agree to participate. The judge noted that the bakery union, which represents about 30 percent of Hostess workers, went on strike after rejecting the company's latest contract offer, even though it never filed an objection to it.
"Many people, myself included, have serious questions as to the logic behind this strike," said Judge Robert Drain, who heard the case in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of New York in White Plains, N.Y. "Not to have gone through that step leaves a huge question mark in this case."
Hostess and the union agreed to mediation talks, which are expected to begin the process on Tuesday.
In an interview after the hearing on Monday, CEO Gregory Rayburn said that the two parties will have to agree to contract terms within 24 hours of the Tuesday since it is costing $1 million a day in overhead costs to wind down operations. But even if a contract agreement is reached, it is not clear if all 33 Hostess plants will go back to being operational.
"We didn't think we had a runway, but the judge just created a 24-hour runway," for the two parties to come to an agreement, Rayburn said.
Hostess, weighed down by debt, management turmoil, rising labor costs and the changing tastes of America, decided on Friday that it no longer could make it through a conventional Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring. Instead, the company, which is based in Irving, Texas, asked the court for permission to sell assets and go out of business.
It's not the sequence of events that the maker of Twinkies, Ding Dongs and Ho Ho's envisioned when it filed for bankruptcy in January, its second Chapter 11 filing in less than a decade. The company, who said that it was saddled with costs related to its unionized workforce, had hoped to emerge with stronger financials. It brought on Rayburn as a restructuring expert and was working to renegotiate its contract with labor unions.
But Rayburn wasn't able to reach a deal with the bakery union. The company, which had been contributing $100 million a year in pension costs for workers, offered workers a new contract that would've slashed that to $25 million a year, in addition to wage cuts and a 17 percent reduction in health benefits. But the bakery union decided to strike.
By that time, the company had reached a contract agreement with its largest union, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which urged the bakery union to hold a secret ballot on whether to continue striking. Although many bakery workers decided to cross picket lines this week, Hostess said it wasn't enough to keep operations at normal levels.
Rayburn said that Hostess was already operating on razor thin margins and that the strike was the final blow. The company's announcement on Friday that it would move to liquidate prompted people across the country to rush to stores and stock up on their favorite Hostess treats. Many businesses reported selling out of Twinkies within hours and the spongy yellow cakes turned up for sale online for hundreds of dollars.
Even if Hostess goes out of business, its popular brands will likely find a second life after being snapped up by buyers. The company says several potential buyers have expressed interest in the brands. Although Hostess' sales have been declining in recent years, the company still does about $2.5 billion in business each year. Twinkies along brought in $68 million so far this year.

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